I can go on for hours about the brilliance of Karl Popper. In a nutshell - after Einstein broke Newtonian physics, thereby effectively breaking SCIENCE, Popper was the guy kneeling on the floor, picking up the bits and saying 'don't worry, it's still good...'
Among the insights was this unbelievably important gem:
Science can't prove anything. It can only disprove things.
Consider the famous black swan example:
A scientist spends her life observing swans. She observes that all the swans she has ever seen are white. Based on this empirical evidence, she posits a theory that all swans are white. This theory is good, solid, SCIENCE.
One day she travels to Australia, and sees - GASP! - a black swan.
Her theory is disproven. But that doesn't mean it wasn't science when she thought of it. Now she can posit a new theory: Swans can be white or black. And again, the new theory is science.
You cannot prove science. You can only disprove it. That is what makes science science.
Isn't that terrific?
So - the connection to business models, especially as relates to the business of distributing content on the internet. As far as e-business models go, we have seen a lot of black swans. And green, and blue, and every other colour.
There have been a hundreds of different theories about how to make money from content on the internet, and one by one, they have pretty much all been disproven.
The plaguing question - 'how do I make money from content?' has not been answered. Content producers are, rightly, very worried. But for every disproved theory, we edge closer and closer to a theory that works.
The gaping flaw here is, of course, that there might not actually be a way to make proper money from content on the internet. And even once some good, viable ways are found, they are always open to being disproved. But if there is a way to do it, the only way we're going to find out is by observing, hypothesising, and testing, for as long as it takes.
Or until bankruptcy, whichever comes first.
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